Demand Estimation
Learn about the Demand Estimation process and access data resources associated with it.
What is Demand Estimation?
We work with the Demand Estimation Sub Committee (DESC) – an industry body comprising Shippers and Transporters – to produce demand models. These models help develop gas demand profiles that are needed for important industry processes.
The diagram below sets out the parameters we provide, together with how they are used in Gemini and UK Link.
Resources to help Demand Estimation
Below, you can find descriptions of each Demand Estimation deliverable, its purpose, and links to resources to find out more. These include our demand models, the gas demand profiles and weather variables.
| Demand Estimation deliverable | Purpose | For use in... |
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End User Category (EUC) |
Categorising gas consumers by their different usage patterns |
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EUC Demand Model |
To provide a mathematical representation of the behaviours and reactions of gas consumers for each EUC |
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Annual Load Profile (ALP) |
Estimating how consumers typically use their gas during a year |
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Daily Adjustment Factor (DAF) |
Estimating how gas consumers' usage reacts to changes in weather |
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Peak Load Factor (PLF) |
Understanding how gas consumers will react in the event of extremely cold weather |
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Composite Weather Variable (CWV) View CWV |
Understanding and explaining the relationship between weather and gas consumption |
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Seasonal Normal Composite Weather Variable (SNCWV) |
Defining a basis for "seasonal normal" weather |
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Demand Estimation timetable
The ten-person Demand Estimation Sub Committee (DESC) is made up of five Shipper and five Distribution Network members. Every year in October, these individual members are confirmed.
The Demand Estimation timetable shows the annual cycle for the Demand Estimation process, aligned to the DESC membership (October to September). You can view or download the timetable below.
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Non-Daily Metered (NDM) sample support for EUC Demand Models
The End User Category (EUC) Demand Models require daily gas consumption data from a sample of customers across all local distribution zones (LDZs). This is currently supported by two main sources:
We manage the Distribution Network’s Non-Daily Metered (NDM) sampling obligations on behalf of Cadent, Wales & West Utilities and Northern Gas Networks.
Our service provider Utilitec Services installs and maintains automated meter reading (AMR) devices across the country. They also collect daily gas consumption data to support demand modelling, which contributes to reliable industry processes and accurate billing.
If you have a query about an Xoserve AMR unit, please contact Utilitec Services directly on 01629 823 611.
Note: Scotia Gas Networks manage their NDM sampling obligations through their own service provider.
Following the implementation of UNC MOD 654S, Shippers are obligated to provide daily gas consumption data from sample supply points within their portfolio.
You can find more information about this in the following documents:
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Common queries
You can find the latest values on the top right of the Demand Estimation webpage.
Along with the underlying demand models used to create the profiles, you can also find the Derived Factors in the UK Link secure area.
- The Derived Factors are located in folder 18: ‘NDM Profiling and Capacity Estimation Algorithms’ – you just need to select the relevant gas year
- The demand models are located in folder 3: ‘Demand Estimation Parameters’
CWVs are published daily on National Gas Transmission's data portal.
The SNCWVs are available in the UK Link secure area. Go to folder 3: ‘Demand Estimation Parameters’, then access the sub-folder: ‘b. Demand Model Supporting Files’.
The Demand Estimation Sub-Committee (DESC) is responsible for producing the Derived Factors used in Demand Estimation. The DESC responsibilities are defined in Section H of the Uniform Network Code (UNC).
The core of the analysis work required to calculate the Derived Factors is performed by the Demand Estimation Team at Correla (on behalf of Xoserve).
DESC is responsible for providing approval at key stages. This includes the final approval which allows CDSP to update the relevant systems with the new Derived Factors for the upcoming Gas Year.
For more information please read An introduction to the Demand Estimation Sub-Committee hosted by the Joint Office of Gas Transporters.
Each year the Demand Estimation Team publishes the ‘NDM Algorithms Booklet’. This booklet provides detailed information about the decisions made in developing the Non-Daily Metered (NDM) algorithms for each gas year.
The end-to-end demand modelling process is presented as ‘Sections’ in the booklet and include:
- Data Aggregations: The disposition of the NDM sample sites used in the regression analyses
- Modelling Results: A summary of the results for the single year modelling runs
- Algorithm Performance: A review of performance for the NDM algorithm applicable for the last full gas year.
The NDM Algorithms Booklet is available via UK Link secure documents.*
(Folder 18. NDM Profiling and Capacity Estimation Algorithms/choose Gas Year/folder 4. NDM Algorithms Booklet)
*Access to secure links are only available to gas shippers and transporters. To gain access find out about accessing secure documents.
The anonymised sample Daily Gas Consumption Data can be accessed via UK Link secure documents.*
(Folder 18. NDM Profiling and Capacity Estimation Algorithms/choose Gas Year/folder 2. Demand Estimation Sample Data)
The folder contains a ‘README’ document which provides guidance on the structure and contents of the files.
*Access to secure links are only available to gas shippers and transporters. To gain access find out about accessing secure documents.
Demand attribution
View all Demand Estimation deliverables
You can find our key deliverables, including models and profiles, in folder 18 of the UK Link secure area.
All UNC parties are entitled to access - if you don't have a login, visit our Accessing secure documents webpage to request access.
Latest derived factors
Access the latest End User Categories, Annual Load Profiles, Daily Adjustment Factors and Peak Load Profiles in our derived factors folder.
Demand Estimation support
If you have any questions about Demand Estimation, raise a support request.
Gas Year 2023/24 Update
Ahead of the new Gas Year, the Demand Estimation Team provides an update on the new Gas Demand Profiles and Unidentified Gas (UIG) Weighting Factors.